tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC May 16, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
to trying to form at the very least a coalition government in greece. >> getting through the afternoon and fed minutes, as well. talk to you soon. that does it for us. as we hit noon, time to get back to headquarters and the fast money halftime report. all right, carl. thanks so much. welcome to a special edn of "the fast money halftime report" live from the lincoln center in new york city. this is one of the world's most famous performance halls but today the stage is turned over to some of wall street's biggest investors. david einhorn, john paulson, they're all here with many other top money managers to share the latest big investment ideas and more importantly to support a worthy cause, children's cancer research. pete, steve next to me. guys, obviously, the vibe here,
everybody wants to know what the ackmans, einhorns, john paulson are going to unveil because it does moves the stocks they talk about, the asset classes they give the presentations on and fair to say there's going to be and we are near the met, right? the drama today. >> when you watch the recent filings, here they give you the presentation. they lay the story out for you. that's why it's such an important conference and these are all legendary investors. i know a few of them, work with a few of them. they really, really know the stuff and enlightning for anybody sitting there. >> pete, certain stocks have moved ahead of the presentations based on what they might say. >> right. >> we don't know what any of these guys are going to say throughout the afternoon. i'll be here throughout the afternoon to bring you the latest information and these picks that come from these legends of wall street. what are your expectations
today? i mean, everybody's expecting big things. >> yes. to your point, scott, when you look at the different names presenting, this kind of brings us back to salt last week with unbelievable folks up there, mostly in some debate, discussions and all of the rest of it and sure came away with some optimistic folks out there as far as looking for opportunities on some of these pull-backs. now we get much more defined and getting the stocks and it could be market moving and i think that's what everybody's anticipating and why some of the names are already moving just because they know that those are names highlighted and moving expecting the direction to be moving. >> we'll talk about some of that coming up. we have guy adami along with us and josh brown. guys, you can comment on what your expectations are from here at the sohn conference but clearly the markets are a big story yet again today. we have watched the euro make big moves on the reports that the euro stopped operations with some greek banks. we watch gold and oil and what they have done over the last
several days and obviously the major market averages, as well, guys. >> yeah. without question, scott. i mean, listen. you're at a great conference and extraordinarily interesting people there. but the you want an overview on the broader market, look at the high this year of 1422. to me, the low each day we sort of tick lower and the more and more inclined to say it's a double topper on the 1425 level that we last ticked at may 2008. so, i could probably make a pretty compelling argument that you need not be long the stock market until you get an s&p close above 1370 to 1375 which a few times is a pivot point in the market. >> yeah. nine of the past ten sessions, the dow jones industrial average has been down. josh brown, your thoughts on the markets today? >> i agree 100% with guy and one of the things to emphasize all spring is this is a time to walk away, not to add to positions.
we are holding on to some grandpa stocks right now. thing that is we think are defensive enough that they should be fine and they're paying a nice yield. outside of that, nothing is telling you you want to jump in here. even if there is a bounce, odds are it's short lived and trapped in the down trend and i just don't see the catalyst at least over the summer that takes us back to the point where money's flowing back in to growth sectors, cyclical sectors, et cete cetera. this is not a time to add to positions. >> watching the markets today and certainly tuned in to see what david einhorn, bill okay man and others say here. the list of stocks to watch at the conference certainly is long and it's extensive. we'd be remiss if we didn't talk about herbal life here. we have no idea what david einhorn is going to say today if he says anything about herbal life but the questions he raised
on the most recent earnings call and the impact it had on that stock. the anticipation is high to talk about it today. a source close to herbalife says they're as relieved as anyone this day is finally here so that they can find out if, in fact, david einhorn is short this name as many people expect that he may be. again, we have no idea what he'll say but you have to look at herbalife front and center with the run-up to the sohn conference. >> i saw the report of downgrading -- >> how unique is this? >> 50% probability to talk about it, first thing i said, this is not an analyst. if you have strength in the convictions then you have to come out and reiterate and face that and see who's right. that analyst should be a handicapper in vegas rather than an analyst. so it is kind of interesting. it really taken it to a maximum sense in terms of how impactful the conference can be, though. >> pete, it's so unique as weiss
mentions you have a wall street firm -- >> right. >> -- come out and downgrade a stock based on over and these are their words, over a 50% chance that einhorn will announce a short on hlf. >> you're talking about a 50% chance. i mean, i'm not -- >> greater than 50% chance. >> slightly greater than a 50% chance. that's pretty interesting. we all know who david einhorn is, the kind of detail he'll be doing as far as some of the presentations. we have seen it before and seen it in the past. that is gentleman who really does dig down deep and obviously they're anticipating things are not as pretty. >> hey, scott. it's josh. i just want to add one thing. hey, you got to keep -- you got to keep in mind here the analyst report actually was a good piece of research in that they're being realistic and saying this will have a lower multiple if, in fact, einhorn is short the stock and i think that's
something analysts don't do enough of. typically the faces buried in the balance sheet of the income statement and don't think of things to affect the price of the stock and what they're basically saying in this report is, if einhorn does not reveal a short, the stock will rally sharply but if he does expect a 9 pe multiple on thing which is pretty depress. >> i couldn't disagree about that. there's nothing more -- >> that's their job to look at the factors. >> fundamental -- but einhorn does come out and short it, everybody's going to follow him to the short position. >> on that note, let's just also note here not all of the picks that come out of conferences like this that are made by the likes of ackman and others and pass out. some do. many of last year's picks made by the same investors and others have turned out to be good. bill ackman talked about long family dollar, for example. that stock's up 23% from then
until now. einhorn long microsoft. microsoft up 27%. since then. the flip side, of course, is when you look at a guy like phil falcone. everybody knows of light square. filed for bankruptcy. last year he used this occasion to talk up light squared and let's just be clear, yes, they're going to move stocks today. whether they actually pan out over the long run, that is anybody's guess but let's also look at the 13 "f" releases moving stocks quite a bit today. general motors is one to follow given news that berkshire hath away's warren buffett revealed an investment there. let's trade the names based on the buffett bounce today. here's a look at pepsico. guy? >> general motors is interesting. green light actually decreased their stake by about 5 million
shares or so in gm. with that said, general motors obviously been the dog. $39 stock a couple of years ago and in terms of a risk/reward, it is interesting. the buffett thing makes it more interesting but a trade setting up nicely, timmy seymour talked about it. where we basically held on the last dip leads me to believe that even though i don't believe in the tape necessarily, i think gm if you're sort of risk/reward, you risk 20.5 to possibly get a 28, 29 handle on this one. i like gm. >> yeah, jb, let's take the pepsi angle and witworth with relational. trader for me and relative of pepsi versus coca-cola in this scenario. do you have a trade on either name? >> i don't but i see a lot of value in pepsi. i took a look at wit the 13-f came out and actually it fits
perfectly with my thesis that defensives outperform this summer and interesting of an activist here. i can't recall a time that an activist taking on coke or pepsi and curious what they think they might want to get done here. one thing to note about relationally, they're not a confrontationist actist shop and meaning they get involved an entry to help management opposed to yanking people off the board and could be interesting. i like it. >> scott, i owned pepsi. owned it for a year now and not doing it to be defensive but i believe in the company. if there's a split, that's a premium but you get a yield. i love the globalization. you've got themselves in the max as well as the beverages. that can be a weight and pulls back too much and those are the opportunities that some of these big whales step in. >> andrew under tremendous pressure and placing your money
behind her? >> i am. i don't think she does anything to screw things up and same time i think when you look at this company and you look at some of those shareholders, yes, maybe not as activist as people expect right now but there have been calls in the past. i think you see the very large shareholders say, hey, look. if we don't see the results we want, we want it to split. >> weiss, where do you come down on coke or pepsi? >> coke guy. go with the market leader. with pepsi, i looked at it. i don't think a break-up of it makes sense. you have distribution channels, shelf space. going to gm for a second, put it in perspective. a 10 million share position on a $20 stock, that's a weekend tip for buffett. he's not making a big statement there. i mean, that's a -- it may be a nod he gave to one of the recent people he brought in saying let me give you a starter position. see what you can do. don't draw anything from that. >> talk about gold here.
lower yet again today. the fourth straight session. briefly entering bear market territory last night after dropping below 1,5$1,538.96 and fallen roughly 20% from the all-time intraday high set back on september the 6th. what becomes the trade now? stay away or buy in to that collapse? this is quite a story. we were at salt. we had people on the show out there saying that gold was going to hit $2,000. eric, the best known hedge fund manager in canada making a huge bet of gold to hit two grand by the end of the year. shy of 1,600 at this point and bear market territory. >> it's a risk asset. it's not a safe haven. b never been a gold bug and bought in to the inflation story or the safe haven story and what you have had now, china come out and say their jewelry
manufacturer association off to the worst start they have had in fabrication in years. they're the second largest consumer of gold aside from india. that's an issue. i think you are starting to see that fall apart in terms of retail. not the high end that's still there and worried and translate that in to concerns of tiffany and go further in to coach which, of course, is clothing but the chinese consumer is not going to be there as it was. >> it piqued my attention. eric coming back to him, he talked about silver and the pslv. >> going to 50. >> he sees a double. a guy out there as sharp as he is looking for a double, it sure -- if nothing else, you start looking at silver and i think you see the risk/reward there at 27 give or take right now. >> it's important -- >> what's interesting here, let's also make it clear that i know a lot of you watching whether you're a professional trader or a retail investor, you probably own gold and you want to know where it's going next and on the context of the sohn
conference, i wonder about john paulson and where gold is going to go. >> i don't think he says anything. i mean, why would he? >> who knows? it's a possibility. >> we don't know his current real position and we may get more clarity on that today. >> whatever he says, confidence. has he been shaken out of that position? that would be the direct question to ask him. >> i'm not sure it carries any weight unless he says i'm selling everything i got. >> ups the ante. how should you be trading gold? rich, chief market strategist of i-trader.com or -- >> iitrader.com. >> reading it in the teleprompter, man. doesn't have the best read. >> iitrader.com. listen. right here -- >> give me your trade. >> i like buying things at a discount. call it like it is. this is a currency play right
now. weakness in the euro, driving that market down below 130 overnight. a 13-day rally in the dollar ind index, the longest in history brings gold right to this 15-20 give or take level. look at the daily chart. back it out to september of last year. you have some great levels to trade against. and this is a counter trend trade. do i want to go all in here? no. do i want futures or levered up? no. i think there's some idea here to probably step in on the long side. the relative strength index is way oversold. i think you have a small buying opportunity here. we put it out this morning for a long 1,600 calls in june. about 8 days. if you take a look at the chart, we have bounced off this level substantially. just in december at 1525. two days later up to 1,600.
that's the play here. >> i got you. >> yep. >> i got you, but you know, the most interesting chart and most important one to look at and the viewers, as well, not the one up there. yes, that is important from a technical standpoint but it's the dollar. the dollar has had this unprecedented 12-day run. now working on its 13th straight day in positive territory. that could be the biggest headwind going forward to gold, can't it? >> listen. i came in today long the dollar. we called up the guys saying 13 days of a rally. we're reaching almost a january high. and almost a january low in the euro. i think it takes some money off the table. guys short euro for a last 30 days take the note on here. again, we might not see the exact tick of, you know, of january's low for you technical guys and take money off the table and reverse it. i also like the concept that according to money managers reduced the long positions by
18% across all commodities, the lowest point since november 22nd of last year. i like that idea that to counter trend, lighter volume and going the other way with this. see how it works. i'm up a percent right now. >> i don't think the gold trade has anything to do with the necklaces at china but everything to do with vetting against fiat currencies and gold is down but i agree. i think north of 2,000 within a year. >> all right. well, it's a good and spirited debate. certainly see where it pans out. pardon the pun. rich, thanks, man. >> thanks, guys. bye-bye. >> take a look at the s&p 500 here. it is near session lows and perhaps it's weakened by when's happening as we said in the euro and some of the reports, again, that the ecb has cut out some activity or some operations with some of the greek banks but it's a story to continue to follow today. watching the retail story, as well. coming up, we're trading ceos
under pressure from jp morgan's jamie dimon, which stock a better buy now and whitney tillson tells us why he has faith in ron johnson despite the plummeting stock price. how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past.
i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea. [ creaking ] [ male announcer ] trophies and awards lift you up. but they can also hold you back. unless you ask, what's next? [ zapping ] [ clang ] this is the next level of performance. the next level of innovation. the next rx. the all-new f sport. this is the purspursuit of perfection.
welcome back to "the fast money halftime report." we are coming to you from lincoln center in the heart of new york city. it is home, of course, to the metropolitan opera, the new york city ballet, as well. the big performances today come from some of wall street's biggest names. whitney tilson joining us now. of the einhorns, ackman, paulsons, gundlachs, who do you want to hear from? >> ackman and einhorn. i respect the research they do. i know them personally. they're great people, as well. always good to hear what they're going to talk about. >> certainly going to be
interesting. let's talk about jc penney. the stock hit today. seeing the worst drop in 24 years on the disappointing earnings report. you're long jc penney. you looked on a hero on barnes & noble. >> right and green mountain, too. >> i won't say you look like a zero now but the stock is heading closer to it than where you thought it was going to be. >> yeah. it's important to understand. we're buying more and view this as an opportunity. our view of how much jc penney is worth five years from now isn't changed and it's important to understand why this happened and the reason is jc penney like many department stores got in the cycle of running like 800 promotions a year and conditioned their customers to only shop when they were getting a huge discount and in fact the number floored me. before ron johnson came in, 0.2% of what they sold was actually at the price marketed on the
merchandise. so they had conditioned the customers to never buy based on the actual price. and ron johnson came in, said this is crazy. destroying the brand, the relationship with the customers and going to stop it cold turkey. last quarter, two thirds of what they sold was at the marked price and went from 0.2% to 67% in 1 quarter and what that caused is shock among the customer who is are accustomed to only -- conditioned literally for decades to only buy with a 60% off coupon or something like that. >> what level did you more at this morning? can you share that with us? >> my partner did the actual trading and after the close yesterday. and then before the open this morning. he's probably been doing a little buying as the stock is weak in trading today but in the high 27, low 28 range, i believe. >> why do you have so much conviction still in ron johnson? i know wall street wants to give him time to make it happen but clearly things have not happened as far as some people had expected.
you have called him -- i think your words were something then -- paraphrasing here. one of the world's greatest retailer if not the world's best. >> i still believe that. >> you do? >> yes. >> you can you believe that? >> they were very weak on sales. they expected a double-diblt decline in sales and so did we. 20%. tougher than expected. but they made tremendous progress on a couple other things. the cost cutting ahead of schedule and reaffirmed guidance for the year despite a really terrible start to the year on the sales front because they're finding all sorts of low-hanging fruit to cut costs. only 21% of the people that walk in actually buy something and what that says is there's a lot of opportunity if they can improve the merchandise in there to really increase the buying. >> that's a big if. let's be honest. >> sure. but the other thing we saw
yesterday is real tangible deals signed up with polo, nike, et cetera where they create the nice stores within stores, promoting certain brands and another one is martha stewart they have a deal going on so our view looking out is customers are going to understand that jc penney offering fair, good, transparent pricing and weaned off the addiction to coupons so you see sales start to rebound. the cost cuts in place and great new merchandise will be available. >> i commend you for believing in your story but stephen weiss doesn't believe it and short the stock. >> one of the favorite shorts. i was shortcoming in. i added to the short today. this is going to the single digits. here are the facts. you don't hire mario to be the starting pitcher to take you from the beginning to the end. ron johnson has a good reputation but a turnaround's a turnaround. not running apple. we don't know his participation. al said he designed the stores.
one of the first in the mall. target, a great concept. every day low price -- >> takes time. it can work. >> retailers are different. you can't cut cost to turn around the retailer. that's about the experience. every day low pricing didn't work with walmart. not working here. they say we're going to have the sales, two fridays a month. every other friday. guess what. they went to the merchants and they said, give us some promotional dollars to do this. they got it. the competitors find out in the most competitive space. promoting protos at 19 every other friday. we can do it $18 on thursday. beating them on that. they said give us more. no way. we gave them all to you. it's a flood strategy. i don't think he can turn around and sitting here talking in two years about ron johnson next job and reviving the career. >> the last word -- >> josh, one thing in there.
>> hey, hey, hey. hurry up. hurry up. >> all right. all right. >> i'm going to come back to you to trade it. >> i think one thing to both agree on is what ron johnson is doing is one of the boldest attempts at a transformation that i have certainly see in my investment career. i think we would both agree that jc penney and the department store industry on a slow downward ptrajectory for decade and the question is, the real question, the difference between us is this the right guy and the right strategy? can they execute? we think yes. and if so, there's a lot of operating leverage to the upside. you would correctly point out if it doesn't work, there's operating leverage to the downside. >> they were crushed in margins despite the fact of cutting costs. >> how much time, whitney, are you willing to give ron johnson before you start to change your opinion and perhaps your position size? >> look.
he's guided, he's given benchmarks over the next few quarters that sales start to improve, be less bad year over year and should start seeing improvements from the space and given guidance on cost cutting that he's going to have to deliver on and also on the non-gap eps. he reaffirmed guidance on the year on that and excess inventory and there will be inventory write-downs and excludeing that so we should know i would say within two to four quarters we should have a pretty good idea which one of us is right on this. >> you have to raise money, whether it's through a bond offering or equity. they're burning through cash. >> i wanted to get a comment from of whitney and what would your trade be today? >> pardon my interruption, scott. i wanted the put out there that this guy has obliterated the trust that we had when he came in because on analyst day he gave great projections and then he sold $32 million worth of stock and then shocks the street
with this. the investor that looks at this has to say, i need them to have a good quarter before i wade in here. i think the story on hold and stephen weiss is dead right. >> thanks, judge. >> all right. we'll see certainly what happens. whitney, thanks so much. coming up, the man who put $16 billion on the line every day. what will muggia is buying today. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea.
of how a shipping giant can befriend a forest may seem like the stuff of fairy tales. but if you take away the faces on the trees... take away the pixie dust. take away the singing animals, and the storybook narrator... [ man ] you're left with more electric trucks. more recycled shipping materials... and a growing number of lower emissions planes... which still makes for a pretty enchanted tale. ♪ la la la [ man ] whoops, forgot one... [ male announcer ] sustainable solutions. fedex. solutions that matter. who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and... is concentrated, so you could use less gel. and with androgel 1.62%, you can save on your monthly prescription.
[ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or, signs in a woman which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are, or may become pregnant or are breast feeding should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. talk to your doctor today about androgel 1.62% so you can use less gel. log on now to androgeloffer.com and you could pay as little as ten dollars a month for androgel 1.62%. what are you waiting for? this is big news.
welcome back to "the halftime show" from the heart of new york city, live from the iris zone investment zone. the pressure that he ron johnson is under, there's many ceos today under pressure. chesapeake. yahoo!. jc morgan. dimon, elevensohn and mcclendon making headlines almost on a daily basis and not the best of headlines at that. guy, you want to talk about what's facing aubry mcclendon here and chesapeake and the pressure to mean for you buying the stock or not? >> listen.
i think clearly he's under tremendous pressure. i mean, he built this effectively from the ground up and might be time for the good of the company for him maybe to sort of pass the baton and i think if there's the case one of two things happen. extraordinarily buy their to me either there are tremendous skeletons in the closet which i don't really believe or carl icon is right and the stock with a significant rebound from here but i think it's dead money until i think he sort of moves aside and then you have a tremendous opportunity. my sense is if he steps aside the stock goes up a quick 10% to 15%. >> weiss, the call on jamie dimon with a position in jc penney. did you say you shorted -- i'm sorry. in jp morgan. obviously, duh. what i'm talking about. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. jp morgan, i bought more yesterday and more this morning and then got away from me.
i think it's way oversold. from the peak and you're down 20% from the highs, and yeah, my issue as we have talked is that the position was too big. not they put the position on but it's a rookie mistake. the best bank out there. >> wrap up the thought of yahoo! and ross levinsohn. >> they've been under pressure and really for the most part overall haven't performed. i look at this still. this is a stock that to me has such value that yahoo!'s trading for free right now based upon the values of most of the asset that is they have outside of the actual yahoo! franchise. for that reason, i love this name. >> okay. the next trade, housing market showing some signs of life as the data rebounds in april in terms of housing starts. should you be buying in to the housing recovery theme? will muggia is president, chief executive officer and chooef
investment officer at westfield capital management and joins us now. >> good to be here. >> can you put everything in to context here and give me a broad market comment of where you think we are and heading given the news we get out of europe? >> sure. you know, at the end of the day, look. we are in a corrective phase. the market internals starting to deteriorate at the middle of april and i think it's a mid cycle correction. i don't think it's a bad bear market. one of the things to do at westfield is playing the risk on, risk off game and guessing about greece. we're trying to do is find classy growth companies to grow organically. they'll get big multiples and driven by new product cycle or segments that grow fast but i think that's the key, return of capital stories, as well. all in one. i think you do much better off than guessing a greek election. >> how would you assess what's happening in the housing market as we talked about leading up to
your introduction today? yes, the starts were a little bit better. housing perhaps has bottomed. maybe moving up a little bit. we have seen some good moves in the housing stocks in names like home depot and those. where do you come down on that? >> yeah. we started to say in december, housing is bottoming. we didn't know how much to uptick but bottoms and all the indicators are there and hearing construction picking up. roofing guys are bullish. the truckers kind of bullish so we own home depot and loes and good stocks and trying to find other derivative housing plays to get a free call option. a name like we're buying today is stanley black & decker. big power tool division. a lot of laid off people. not buying tools until things get better and new construction comes back but meantime what i like about it is a 2.5% yield, $7 in cash eps this year, 10 times earnings. 75% of the business never recovered from '08 so you have
about 2 billion in potential revenue on any reasonable uptick or recovery and so it's kind of a free call option on things getting better. and oh by the way, buy back about 5% of the company a year and ceos not doing smart things or in trouble. at least they're very disciplined allocators of capital. a shrewd acquisition and buy back stock. they actually repatriot the money and pay taxes. i don't know where i come down on that and increasing dividends and you can find plays just get rid of the global macro play and find classy growth companies to double earnings over a couple of years. >> will, thanks so much. it is a pleasure to have you on. will muggia. >> my pleasure. >> one of the other picks on the list is -- >> by the way, will had me with free call option. we are looking for that. when you look at selgen, it's
off. stock pulled back almost 10% of the earnings. missed the expectations but the growth trajectory, one of the top picks. i agree with will absolutely. at $70 a share right now with the multiple trading at with the potential growth and some of the great cancer drugs in the pipeline, that is company i like a lot. >> coming up, live from the sohn conference in new york city, we are trading. what's trending? will the week job numbers and euro troubles push the fed to qe-3? we're taking positions. don't want to miss that. a reminder, check out the extensive facebook ipo coverage online including the "fast money" primer. [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting.
♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪ a living breathing intelligence bringing people together to bring new ideas to life. look. it's so simple. [ male announcer ] in here, the right minds from inside and outside the company come together to work on an idea. adding to it from the road, improving it in the cloud
paulson. some of the big names giving presentations throughout the day. i will be here all day long to bring that market moving and stock moving for certain information to all of you. another piece of news that could move the market, the fed set to release the most recent meeting notes today after disappointing the market last time with no mention of qe3 is it dovish in light of weak domestic job numbers and euro zone unease? let's bring in steve liesman at headquarters with more. what should we expect today? good to see you. wish you were here with us. >> my track record there. i thought last month was a non-starter, a non-event. look at what it did to the market. it was a big mover. i'll explain why in a second. s&p 500 falling .4%. gold down half a tenth and then the dollar index rising and the reason, of course, was because the fed we thought they were going to have a big discussion of qe3 and other stuff. didn't happen. what happened was what we thought was a few members
thinking more qe on the way just became a couple. so that gives us some guidance on what to look for. how many members are supporting qe3? how much of a discussion was there of things like you mentioned europe? i want to show you the probabilities i put on outcomes for the fed from a smart observer. he say there is's a 15% probability that strong data is going to lead the fed in the coming months to soften the guidance. a 30% probability weak data leads to more asset purchases but a 55% chance operation twist ends no change in the guidance. no additional asset purchases from the fed. i think that's where the market is right now. which is why i put it up there. of course, we'll be skrut needsing the minutes for additional qe support. a couple or few. bernanke told us at the press conference the fed had a discussion on long-term unemployment and could play in to policy in some really interesting ways, scott. >> yeah, steve, thanks so much.
i would love to get comments. you can stick around for this conversation. steve weiss, how would you be trading around the fed minutes? >> i just don't think it's anything new in the minutes. true we have had i think both bad employment payroll numbers come out since the fed meeting but i don't think -- i think it's a nonevent. i think the market's going to trade down. the world's hanging on every central bank doing more easing and that's just a wrong prescription. >> josh brown, a word on this, as well. i imagine you have some thoughts. >> yeah, well, i mean, let me tell you, if you think that the fed minutes are the big concern, i mean, this is like eighth or ninth on the list of what people should worry about so i agree with steve. i think this is relatively benign. i don't think -- >> you mean i might get it right, josh? a nonevent. i have been wrong about that. what the market cares about. >> here's the thing to look at. as an investor, you probably if you have any kind of risk management anything in place, you probably are not fully invested right now and so is
anything that the fmoc going to make you get more fully invested? probably not. >> i would just say -- i would just say, josh, that, you know, your skepticism is only sort of rebutted with the fact that the last time that the fed minutes came out as steve will back up on this, as well, that the market did move. so it does indicate -- >> it did move. >> it will move. >> i want to interrupt on that. i think the market was not correctly calibrated to the public domain. we had listen reporting through the fed survey and also my additional reporting on the federal reserve that qe increasingly coming off the table. i think there was some hot money, maybe money at the table banking on additional qe that when the minutes came out and they were faced with the reality that qe was not high on the list -- scott, two more things. first of all, i'm told that the oversight committee next week they'll discuss the jp morgans derivative trade and more news
if they didn't discuss it. finally, i need to thank the "fast money" boys, scott. they came up to the fishing charity tournament this weekend. guy did. taranova did and stepped up to the plate. we'll help the wounded warriors go fishing and money to cystic fibrosis and they stepped up to the plate. >> i would expect nothing less from my guys there, steve. thanks so much, man. >> my pleasure. thanks. coming up, will walmart's results help it move past the bribery probe? we're taking positions ahead of tomorrow's report live when we come back. hey, did you ever finish last month's invoices?
sadly, no. oh. but i did pick up your dry cleaning and had your shoes shined. well, i made you a reservation at the sushi place around the corner. well, in that case, i better get back to these invoices... which i'll do right after making your favorite pancakes. you know what? i'm going to tidy up your side of the office. i can't hear you because i'm also making you a smoothie. [ male announcer ] marriott hotels & resorts knows it's better for xerox to automate their global invoice process so they can focus on serving their customers. with xerox, you're ready for real business.
but not how we get there. because in this business, there are no straight lines. only the twists and turns of an unpredictable industry. so the eighty-thousand employees at delta... must anticipate the unexpected. and never let the rules overrule common sense. this is how we tame the unwieldiness of air travel, until it's not just lines you see... it's the world. how math and science kind of makes the world work. in high school, i had a physics teacher by the name of mr. davies. he made physics more than theoretical, he made it real for me. we built a guitar, we did things with electronics and mother boards. that's where the interest in engineering came from. so now, as an engineer,
i have a career that speaks to that passion. thank you, mr. davies. today on "power lunch," gold, housing, return to fundamentals. what do they say about the economy right now? and with dwrurp a mess and a d.c. budget and debt battle looming, we will have three emerging market plays you might want to consider. one percenters or 1% of the one percenters, scared off in the financial crisis. where the wealthy putting their money now? that's all on "power" top of the hour. now back to you, scott. >> all right. thanks so much. looking forward to that. we have some stocks moving because of what's being said down stairs at the sohn conference here in new york city. larry robbins of glenview
capitals and the movement in the stocks he's mentioned. tenet health care up almost 2%. health management and hca, as well, as a a fractional mover. saying he's long the hospitals. he's also short utilities and defense. j.b., you want to speak to the hospitals and then we'll move it around? >> yeah. it's actually a fascinating thesis. and i think he might be right there. the election will have a big impact, obviously. but if you look at the way hospitals were operating prior to obama care, they would treat people in the e.r. who had no shot at paying the bills and a big problem with collections and losses. under obama care those bills get paid for politically whether you like it or not is a different story. robins is pointing out that this sector is trading at a 21% discount to ebitda. that should make value investors perk their ears up. i think it's a really interesting thesis. >> this is why we're here today,
guys, because the folk who is are presenting today will be moving the stocks that they talk about. robbins already taking the stage, ackman, einhorn, gunlock and others throughout the day. we'll bring you the reports and show you the minute-by-minute stock moves the comments make. quick comment on utilities and defense. >> the defense i can understand. utility is more interesting because you're paying to short them. there's a yield there. not for the average investor. robbins has been around for a long time. >> i think the utility short is the most interesting part for me just because that is an area where people are looking for yield. everybody's always looking for yield. there's some monster yield out there. >> coming up on ho"halftime report," we're going to trade your fweets.
i'm making my money do more. i'm consolidating my assets. i'm not paying hidden fees or high commissions. i'm making the most of my money. and seven-dollar trades are just the start. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. and i'm loving every minute of it. [ rodger riney ] at scottrade, we give you commission-free etfs, no-fee iras and more. come see why more investors are saying... itrade.
welcome back. we have a new tool for "fast money" "halftime report," its purpose is to uncover the stocks getting the most chatter on twitter. seema mody here as usual with her analysis of the twitter heat map. hey, seema. >> hey there. look what's trending on stocktwits. the bigger the box, the bigger the chatter on twitter. let's zone in on consumer goods. a lot of chatter right there. general motors has been an outperform in trade after the company hit unlike on facebook. and then warren buffett last night revealing his stake in the company. take a look at some of the tweets we got.
if warren buffett loves gm now, he'll love it even more when he gets demolished along side every stock with european exposure. we'll get trader reaction to that in just a moment. let's take a step back and take a look again at the stocktwit heat map. social media stocks obviously in focus ahead of facebook's ipo. specifically chinese social media names. specifically a look at znga, stemming a hot debate. prodominantly bulli isish on stocktwits. there are a few bears out there. brad writing why would you ever invest in a company whose earnings were impacted by higher than expected censorship. scott, these are all high beta momentum trades. i'll leave it to you guys to trade those stocks. >> seema, thanks so much. just to hit, pete, on general motors and the europe question.
i think the most striking things -- thing for the most recent earnings report from the automakers, whether it's ford, gm, is the weakness in europe is stark and it doesn't look to be turning around any time soon. >> right. if that's the reason to jump in on gm right now, that's the wrong reason. if you look at where it ipoed, where it's trading and some of the growth they've been able to put outside europe, it becomes a compelling story. you can understand why to your point it was warren buffett putting his toe in the water. >> one other thing, the japanese are back full force now. they weren't when the company ipoed. much more competitive now. >> all right. coming up, some final trades from the halftime team. on december 21st polar shifts will reverse the earth's gravitational pull and hurtle us all into space. which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd, and you still need to retire. td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600
in that time there've been some good days. and some difficult ones. but, through it all, we've persevered, supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. so why should our anniversary matter to you? because for 200 years, we've been helping ideas move from ambition to achievement. and the next great idea could be yours. ♪ and the next great idea could be yours. are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule. the first technology of its kind... mom and dad, i have great news.
is now providing answers families need. siemens. answers. ♪ i can do anything ♪ i can do anything today ♪ i can go anywhere ♪ i can go anywhere today ♪ la la la la la la la [ male announcer ] dow solutions help millions of people by helping to make gluten free bread that doesn't taste gluten free. together, the elements of science and the human element can solve anything. solutionism. the new optimism. as we wrap it up here at the ira sohn investment conference, we want to ri mind you that today's event is about finding a cure for pediatric